Australia Just Had Its Worst Season in Twenty Years. Here Is What Japan's 12-Winter Record Says About Booking It Instead.
Snow depth at Spencers Creek peaked at 94.5 cm, the third lowest since 1954, and resorts closed in August. Our own measure — snowfall, not depth — puts Australia at 50% of its 12-year average. The gap between those two numbers is the story: it was the warmth, not only the lack of snow. New Zealand, meanwhile, finished at 106% of normal.
Australia’s 2026 season ended early and badly. Snow depth at Spencers Creek in the Snowy Mountains — the measurement Australia has kept since 1954 — peaked at 94.5 cm on 13 August, the third lowest peak in 73 years, and fell to 31.2 cm by 3 September, a record low for that date. The peak-season average ran about 45% below the long-run average: the fifth-worst season on the record and the worst in two decades. Mount Baw Baw and Selwyn closed before the end of August; Mount Hotham, Falls Creek and Charlotte Pass followed (Weatherzone, SBS).
We measure something different, and the difference turns out to be the story.
Our figure is snowfall — how much fell — from ERA5 reanalysis at each ski area’s coordinates, on the same method we use for all 3,065 ski areas on earth. Spencers Creek measures snow depth — how much stayed. In a normal bad year those two move together. In 2026 they did not.
For this comparison we totalled snowfall from 1 June to 25 September in each of the last 12 years — the same window every year, so 2026 is not flattered or punished by where the calendar fell.
What fell: 50% of normal, third-lowest of the last 12 years
| Season | Australia, 10 ski areas | Share of the 12-year average |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 246 cm | 187% |
| 2022 | 181 cm | 138% |
| 2018 | 174 cm | 132% |
| 2025 | 170 cm | 129% |
| 2021 | 169 cm | 129% |
| 2019 | 159 cm | 121% |
| 2020 | 129 cm | 98% |
| 2024 | 98 cm | 74% |
| 2023 | 94 cm | 72% |
| 2026 | 66 cm | 50% |
| 2016 | 52 cm | 40% |
| 2015 | 41 cm | 31% |
Australia’s 12-year average is 132 cm across the June–September window. This year delivered 66 cm.
Resort by resort, it was worse in Victoria than in New South Wales:
| Ski area | 2026 | Typical season | Share | Where 2026 ranks in 12 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Buller | 24 cm | 72 cm | 33% | worst of the 12 |
| Selwyn | 59 cm | 171 cm | 34% | worst of the 12 |
| Mount Hotham | 60 cm | 162 cm | 37% | 2nd worst |
| Mount Baw Baw | 18 cm | 44 cm | 41% | 3rd worst |
| Falls Creek | 80 cm | 171 cm | 47% | 3rd worst |
| Thredbo | 107 cm | 184 cm | 58% | 3rd worst |
| Charlotte Pass | 128 cm | 216 cm | 59% | 3rd worst |
| Perisher | 128 cm | 211 cm | 61% | 3rd worst |
Mount Buller and Selwyn recorded their lowest natural snowfall of the last 12 years. Nothing here accounts for snowmaking, which is how those resorts opened at all.
Why the depth record is worse than the snowfall record
By snowfall, 2026 was Australia’s third-thinnest of the last 12 years — 2015 (31% of normal) and 2016 (40%) were worse in what fell from the sky. By depth, 2026 was the worst in twenty years and the snowpack lasted a shorter time than any season on the Spencers Creek record.
That gap is the warmth. Australia’s reported causes this year were a warm winter, above-average sea surface temperatures and a shortage of cold fronts — conditions that both reduce snowfall and destroy the snow that does fall. A season can survive low snowfall if it stays cold. 2026 did not stay cold.
It is worth being precise about that, because “worst season ever” and “least snow ever” are different claims, and only one of them is true here.
New Zealand, at the same time, was fine
| 2026 | Share of 12-year average | |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand, 26 ski areas | 162 cm | 106% |
| Mount Hutt | 207 cm | 126% |
| Invincible Snowfields | 451 cm | 120% |
| Treble Cone | 278 cm | 103% |
| Tūroa / Whakapapa | 101 cm | 91% |
Two countries in the same hemisphere, in the same winter, 2,000 km apart: one at half its normal snowfall, the other slightly above. Australia’s alpine area is small, low and marginal — its good years depend on a handful of cold fronts arriving at the right time — while New Zealand’s Southern Alps are higher and take snow from a different storm track. (New Zealand’s season was still running when we cut the window on 25 September, so its final number will be a little higher than what is shown here.)
The number Australians will actually want
Japan’s ski areas, across the 12 winters we measure, average 285 cm from December to March — more than double Australia’s typical season, at 393 ski areas instead of 10.
But the honest comparison for the coming winter is not the average. It is the risk:
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gave a very strong El Niño better than a 90% chance for the Northern Hemisphere winter, in its 10 September advisory
- In the 12 winters we measured, Japan’s El Niño winters came in at 88% of normal, its La Niña winters at 108%
- The record El Niño winter of 2015/16 took Japan to 63% of normal — in other words, a season not unlike the one Australia just had
- Within that bad winter, Hokkaido held 81% and Hakuba held 92%, while Niseko fell to 57%
So: Japan is not immune, and this is a winter to pay attention to the floor rather than the average. Every resort page on this site now shows the worst of that resort’s last 12 winters, which is the number that tells you what a bad year actually looks like there.
For reference, the worst of 12 winters at four names Australians book:
| Resort | Typical winter | Worst of 12 winters |
|---|---|---|
| Hakuba Happo-One | 414 cm | 301 cm |
| Nozawa Onsen | 450 cm | 301 cm |
| Niseko Grand Hirafu | 289 cm | 166 cm |
| Furano | 220 cm | 181 cm |
Hakuba’s worst winter in 12 years still delivered more snow than Australia’s best season of the last 12 years, at any of its ski areas. That is the gap being crossed when an Australian books Japan.
Practicalities for this winter
- Japan’s season opens 21 November (Sapporo Teine), 28 November (Niseko, Rusutsu, Kiroro, Furano) and 1 December (Hakuba Happo-One) — full list of 2026/27 opening dates
- Adult day tickets run from about ¥5,200 to ¥13,500 — what we have checked at each resort
- Live cameras at 134 Japanese ski areas, grouped by valley on our area pages
How this was measured
Snowfall is the total of daily snowfall at each ski area’s coordinates from ERA5 reanalysis, via the Open-Meteo Historical Weather API. For the Southern Hemisphere we summed 1 June to 25 September for each year from 2015 to 2026; for Japan, 1 December to 31 March for each winter from 2014/15 to 2025/26. This is natural snowfall from a weather model at a 10–30 km grid, not resort-reported snow depth, and it does not include machine-made snow — which is a material difference in Australia in particular. The method is identical for all 3,065 ski areas on this site, which is what makes the comparison possible at all.
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