Planning a trip / Where the snow falls
Japan in the Australian School Holidays: Christmas Week Is the Gamble, January Is Not
The 2026/27 summer holidays run from mid-December to late January in NSW, Victoria and Queensland, and Qantas flies Sydney–Sapporo up to five times a week across most of that window. On twelve winters of snowfall, late December on Honshu is the shakier half of the break; in Hokkaido the two halves are about level.
On Visa’s card data, Australians made up about 30% of international ski travellers in Japan in the 2024/25 season (Visa), and JNTO counted more than a million Australian visitors to Japan in 2025. For families, the dates are hardly a choice: the trip happens in the summer school holidays, and that break spans two different parts of the Japanese winter.
The 2026/27 holiday dates
| Holidays | Term 1 starts | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSW (Eastern division) | 18 December 2026 – 27 January 2027 | 3 February 2027 | NSW Department of Education |
| Victoria (government schools) | Term 4 ends 18 December 2026 | 27 January 2027 (students 28 January) | Victorian Government |
| Queensland (state schools) | Term 4 ends 11 December 2026 | 27 January 2027 | Queensland Department of Education |
Catholic and independent schools set their own dates. Check your school’s calendar before booking.
Qantas’s timetable for QF107, Sydney–Sapporo, has three flights a week from 7 December, up to five a week from 16 December to 31 January, and four a week in February (Qantas). Qantas’s agency page gives the last flight as 27 March 2027, though some of its other pages say 31 March, so check the booking engine.
Christmas week
| Resort | December | January | December as share of January | Leanest December, as share of normal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Furano | 69 cm | 57 cm | 121% | 61% (2021/22) |
| Kiroro | 86 cm | 96 cm | 90% | 65% (2015/16) |
| Niseko Grand Hirafu | 83 cm | 85 cm | 98% | 48% (2015/16) |
| Hakuba47 and Tsugaike | 204 cm | 217 cm | 94% | 45% (2015/16) |
| Hakuba Happo-One | 126 cm | 139 cm | 91% | 44% (2019/20) |
| Akakura Kanko (Myoko) | 126 cm | 154 cm | 82% | 40% (2015/16) |
| Nozawa Onsen | 127 cm | 167 cm | 76% | 40% (2019/20) |
Average new snow per month over 2014/15 to 2025/26 on the ERA5 model. Compare months at the same resort, not centimetres between Hokkaido and Honshu: checked against weather stations, the model returns about 50% of the snow in Hokkaido (on only four stations) and 77% in Niigata and Nagano.
In Hokkaido, December is already close to January, and at Furano it is bigger. On Honshu, December runs at 76–94% of January: the snow is still building over Christmas.
The leanest Decembers came in the same two winters, 2015/16 and 2019/20, at every resort here except Furano, and in those years most fell to under half of normal, Niseko included. Furano and Kiroro held up best, at 61% and 65%. For a holiday fixed to the last week of December, those two have the better record on our figures.
Nozawa Onsen calls 28 November to 18 December its early-season period, with the opening festival on 19 December (opening dates), the first Saturday of the NSW holidays. Hakuba Goryu opens on 21 November with only its lower Toomi area, and its upper mountain follows when there is snow.
January
| Resort | January | January as share of Dec–Mar | Leanest January, as share of normal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nozawa Onsen | 167 cm | 37% | 57% (2019/20) |
| Akakura Kanko (Myoko) | 154 cm | 35% | 68% (2024/25) |
| Hakuba Happo-One | 139 cm | 34% | 70% (2019/20) |
| Hakuba47 and Tsugaike | 217 cm | 33% | 69% (2015/16) |
| Kiroro | 96 cm | 29% | 55% (2019/20) |
| Niseko Grand Hirafu | 85 cm | 29% | 56% (2019/20) |
| Furano | 57 cm | 26% | 68% (2016/17) |
January is the snowiest month at every resort here except Furano. On Honshu it carries more than a third of the winter, and its worst year in twelve still brought 57–70% of normal, against 40–45% for December. In Hokkaido the two halves of the holiday are about level: Kiroro’s worst January (55%) was lower than its worst December (65%).
So the choice between the halves matters most if you are going to Honshu. Qantas runs up to five flights a week until 31 January, and Term 1 starts between 27 January and 3 February in these three states, so on Nagano and Niigata snow the January part of the holiday is the one to aim for.
Booking by half
- 19–31 December: Hokkaido, with Furano and Kiroro the steadiest on our record. On Honshu, check which areas are open on your dates.
- January: any resort on this list. The choice comes down to the kind of trip; our Niseko vs Hakuba comparison and the side-by-side of Hakuba’s ten ski areas cover that.
- Both halves: a Hokkaido week over Christmas followed by Honshu in January follows the snow.
How reliable December is across the whole country is in How reliable is December snow in Japan. For how Japan compares with home, see Skiing Japan from Australia and New Zealand.
About these figures
Monthly snowfall at each resort’s coordinates comes from ERA5 reanalysis (via Open-Meteo) for the twelve winters 2014/15 to 2025/26. It understates mountain snow, by more in Hokkaido than in Niigata and Nagano (how we checked), which is why this page compares each resort’s months with each other. Hakuba47 and Tsugaike share a model grid cell. Holiday dates were checked on each state education department’s site on 24 October 2026 (Victoria’s calendar is marked subject to change); flight details are from Qantas’s own pages; the 30% figure is Visa’s estimate from card data, not an official count.
Sources: state education departments (linked above); Qantas; JNTO Australia; Open-Meteo historical weather data, based on the ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service).
Questions
When are the 2026/27 summer school holidays in NSW, Victoria and Queensland?
In NSW (Eastern division) the holidays run from 18 December 2026 to 27 January 2027, with Term 1 starting on 3 February. In Victoria Term 4 ends on 18 December 2026 and in Queensland on 11 December, and both start Term 1 on 27–28 January 2027. Individual and non-government schools vary, so check your own school's calendar.
Is there snow in Japan over Christmas?
Usually, but on Honshu late December is the less certain half of the holiday. On our twelve-winter record, December snowfall there runs at 76–94% of January's, and in the leanest Decembers it fell to 40–45% of normal. In Hokkaido, December is close to January or, at Furano, more, though Niseko's leanest December was also under half of normal.
Is January the best month to ski in Japan?
On snowfall, January is the biggest month at every resort we looked at except Furano, where December edges it, and brings 26–37% of the December–March total. On Honshu even the leanest January in twelve winters brought 57–70% of normal.
Does Qantas fly direct from Sydney to Sapporo this winter?
Yes. Qantas lists its seasonal Sydney–Sapporo service from 7 December 2026, rising to up to five flights a week from 16 December 2026 to 31 January 2027 and four a week in February. Check the end date and aircraft with Qantas when you book.
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