Planning a trip / Climate and the future
El Niño Winters in Japan: Where the Snow Drops, and Where It Actually Rises
We split the last 12 winters at 392 Japanese ski areas by El Niño. Most of the Sea of Japan side averaged 83–90% of normal in El Niño winters, while the plateaus of Karuizawa, Sugadaira and Yatsugatake averaged 108–117%. Hakuba Happo-One held 97%.
On 8 October the US Climate Prediction Center gave an 83% chance that a strong or very strong El Niño lasts through January–March. (Its September advisory had put the chance of a very strong event above 90%; our first piece quoted that.) The Japan Meteorological Agency’s cold-season outlook of 18 September, as summarised by the Japan Weather Association, expects a mild winter with less snow than usual on the Sea of Japan side.
The first piece looked at Japan as a whole. This one breaks it down by area: which parts of Japan lose snow in an El Niño winter, and which gain it.
We do not forecast snow. What we have is the snowfall at every Japanese ski area, calculated the same way over the last 12 winters. Five of those winters were El Niño winters: 2014/15, 2015/16, 2018/19, 2019/20 and 2023/24, with NOAA’s December–February ONI at +0.5 or above.
Japan as a whole
| Share of normal snowfall, 392 ski areas | |
|---|---|
| El Niño winters (5), average | 88% |
| Neutral winters (3), average | 110% |
| La Niña winters (4), average | 108% |
| 2015/16, strongest El Niño of the 12 | 63% |
| 2023/24, second strongest | 100% |
Across Japan an El Niño winter averaged a bit under 90% of normal. But 53 of the 392 ski areas averaged more snow than normal in El Niño winters, and most of them sit together on the plateaus of central Honshu.
Area by area
| Area | Ski areas | Typical winter | El Niño winters | 2015/16 | 2023/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karuizawa and Asama | 3 | 114 cm | 117% | 122% | 128% |
| Mount Fuji | 3 | 107 cm | 110% | 88% | 141% |
| Sugadaira | 4 | 164 cm | 108% | 97% | 121% |
| Yatsugatake | 3 | 124 cm | 108% | 83% | 123% |
| Shirakaba and Kurumayama | 10 | 135 cm | 104% | 72% | 121% |
| Kusatsu and Manza | 5 | 286 cm | 102% | 75% | 118% |
| Shiga Kogen | 10 | 332 cm | 96% | 65% | 112% |
| Hakuba Valley | 10 | 542 cm | 92% | 71% | 104% |
| Furano and Tokachi | 6 | 222 cm | 92% | 88% | 94% |
| Appi and Hachimantai | 11 | 323 cm | 90% | 53% | 108% |
| Sapporo | 10 | 253 cm | 89% | 69% | 106% |
| Myoko and Joetsu | 11 | 497 cm | 88% | 53% | 102% |
| Nozawa and Kijimadaira | 4 | 451 cm | 88% | 62% | 98% |
| Zao | 9 | 228 cm | 88% | 56% | 111% |
| Minami-Uonuma | 6 | 507 cm | 85% | 66% | 88% |
| Echigo-Yuzawa | 18 | 650 cm | 84% | 50% | 91% |
| Niseko | 3 | 289 cm | 84% | 64% | 97% |
| Daisen (Tottori) | 5 | 170 cm | 75% | 46% | 101% |
| Hyonosen and Hachikita (Hyogo) | 10 | 209 cm | 69% | 27% | 108% |
| Okuibuki and Yogo (Shiga) | 5 | 190 cm | 59% | 26% | 90% |
An area’s share compares its combined snowfall with its combined average. “Typical winter” is the December–March average over the last 12 winters. Areas match the area pages on this site; closed ski areas are left out here and in the national figures.
The top and bottom of the table usually get their snow from different weather. The top rows are inland plateaus in central Honshu and around Mount Fuji. When the winter monsoon blows, the mountains shield them and they tend to stay sunny; much of their snow comes from low-pressure systems tracking along Japan’s south coast. The bottom rows are where the monsoon carries snow in off the Sea of Japan.
According to the Japan Weather Association’s summary, the JMA outlook expects the winter pressure pattern to break down often this year and south-coast lows to pass more often. Our data shows only the result, not the weather behind it: in past El Niño winters the plateaus gained snow and the Sea of Japan side lost it.
The resorts people ask about
| Resort | Typical winter | El Niño winters | 2015/16 | 2023/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakuba Happo-One | 414 cm | 97% | 92% | 102% |
| Shiga Kogen | 255 cm | 105% | 84% | 116% |
| Furano | 220 cm | 95% | 93% | 93% |
| Myoko Suginohara | 357 cm | 94% | 65% | 110% |
| Rusutsu | 212 cm | 92% | 73% | 98% |
| Naeba | 446 cm | 90% | 54% | 101% |
| Nozawa Onsen | 450 cm | 89% | 67% | 103% |
| Gala Yuzawa | 618 cm | 88% | 53% | 91% |
| Zao Onsen | 258 cm | 87% | 50% | 113% |
| Kiroro | 331 cm | 86% | 63% | 106% |
| APPI Kogen | 377 cm | 86% | 44% | 110% |
| Niseko Grand Hirafu | 289 cm | 82% | 57% | 97% |
These are single resorts, so they differ from the area table: Shiga Kogen the resort is 255 cm and 105%, while the Shiga Kogen area of 10 ski areas is 332 cm and 96%.
Hakuba Happo-One kept 92% of its snow even in 2015/16. That winter the Hakuba Valley as a whole got 71%, Nozawa Onsen 67% and Madarao 53%.
More snow is not deep snow
The places whose share rises are the places that do not get much to begin with. Karuizawa Prince averages 81 cm; its El Niño average is about 97 cm. Gala Yuzawa averages 618 cm and its El Niño average was about 540 cm, though in 2015/16 it fell to 53% of normal.
So if you are choosing on depth, the deep Sea of Japan side still wins in an El Niño winter. The percentages matter for a different question: whether a thin winter leaves a resort without enough snow to ski. That risk is highest in western Japan: Okuibuki and Yogo averaged 59% in El Niño winters and 26% in 2015/16.
Two strong El Niños, two different winters
The two strongest El Niños in our record gave very different winters: 63% of normal across Japan in 2015/16, 100% in 2023/24. Two cases cannot tell you which this winter will resemble. Read the tables as an order of who loses snow first, not as a forecast.
How we would use this
- Going in December? These figures are December–March totals and say nothing about early season. Our December reliability numbers and the opening dates list do.
- Going to the Sea of Japan side? Pick a resort with a big typical total. A loss of 10–20% is the El Niño average, and in 2015/16 much of that side lost about half.
- The central Honshu plateaus (Karuizawa, Sugadaira, Yatsugatake, Shirakaba) averaged 104–117% in El Niño winters. But in 2015/16, the strongest, only Karuizawa beat its average; Shirakaba got 72% and Yatsugatake 83%. Their totals are small, so a single south-coast low or the lack of one makes a big difference.
- Hokkaido held 80% of normal even in 2015/16, but Niseko Grand Hirafu fell to 57% that winter while Furano held 93%.
How this was measured
Snowfall is the December–March total near each ski area, from ERA5 reanalysis via the Open-Meteo Historical Weather API, averaged over the 12 winters from 2014/15 to 2025/26. It is an average over a 10–30 km square, so totals differ from a resort’s own reports; this article compares each place only with itself.
El Niño winters are those with NOAA’s December–February ONI at +0.5 or above; La Niña winters at −0.5 or below, the same split as in our first piece. Areas match the area pages on this site.
This winter’s outlook is from the Climate Prediction Center’s ENSO discussion of 8 October 2026 and the Japan Weather Association’s summary of the JMA cold-season outlook of 18 September 2026. We publish no forecast of our own; check the JMA and the resort before you travel.
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion; Japan Meteorological Agency, seasonal forecasts; Japan Weather Association, tenki.jp winter outlook; Open-Meteo historical weather data, based on ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service).
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